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Channel: Brad Ideas - Comments for "The future of the city and Robocar Oriented Development"
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To answer many notes

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In reply to A collection of thoughts

Yes, a number of things I have addressed in other essays.

Initially, parking will still cost plenty in CBDs. As robocars start parking outside the CBD to save money, the market will adjust prices to maintain an equilibrium, but soon lots will decide they can make more money as something else (or the city might buy them for parkland or push this by limiting rezoning.) While the cost of parking at CBD hotels is annoying, the reason they can charge so much is that it's not a big driver of the decision to stay there.

I actually think mass transit gets a big overhaul, perhaps even before the driverless bus (with the unions.) The robot van is probably the best vehicle for mass transit -- seats enough to be energy efficient, does not seat too many (which makes the bus inefficient) off-peak, is cheaper and smaller and thus is more frequent. But this is only for those who can't afford a robotaxi, or at rush hour.

I don't think that's going to be too many people though. I predict the cost of the robotaxi should be cheaper than the cost of today's cars, which is about 50 to 80 cents/mile. That may be too much for a long trip (like commuter rail) but is cheaper than both the real cost of many of today's transit trips and even cheaper than the subsidized cost. So while the transit gets cheaper I don't think it will be a lot cheaper -- only the very poor would find the savings compelling.

Robocar-only is quite some time away -- that generates a huge number of changes. In this article I wanted to paint the path to that with incremental changes. Even when it's 50-50 human vs. robocar, the parking lots start shrinking.

I do agree that the ability to do one-way trips strong encourages the use of other modes (like walking, biking, transit) because you don't have to get back to where you left your car. In fact, several years ago I even proposed the bikebot, a small robot that can deliver bicycles -- using the bike's wheels as part of the structure to be small and light. With the robot that delivers a bike, quick one-way bike trips become super convenient aned healthy.

The safety of streets from accidents is a factor but not a large one, I think, in the decision to suburbanize.

The plots without garages are nothing new, many cities were planned that way before cities starting insisting you have a parking space for every dwelling.


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